{"phase":"strategy","mode":"ACTIVE","control":"run","stopReason":null,"startedAt":"2026-09-20T06:00:21.364Z","createdAt":"2026-09-19T22:28:20.455Z","lastMonitorAt":"2026-09-25T08:39:03.115Z","lastNavAt":"2026-09-25T08:39:03.115Z","lastNav":99659.50081789978,"cash":90220.91767447573,"basis":10578.356462740965,"realized":799.2741372167065,"unrealized":-271.81840780636594,"dailyPnl":-5.29177795459691,"dayStartNav":99664.79259585438,"day":"2026-09-25","exposure":10310.335058381977,"exposureStatus":"CURRENT","qty":0.122211962,"feeReserve":867.9549115105514,"version":{"profile":"alpaca-qwen-btc-v1","project":"goat-arena-prod","database":"arena","sourceSha":"7dfe69ae4aeaf3b58e96ddfd491b37d0c8f69ba8","sourceDigest":"fd39f2a703d4ea4725d486cd5c46dae25f9ee538a1e30da047655378ea38134c","revision":"goat-arena-alpaca-report-7dfe69ae-35854676054","access":"public-read-only"},"profile":{"id":"alpaca-qwen-btc-v1","policyVersion":"allocation-100k-uncapped-v2","symbol":"BTC/USD","model":"qwen/qwen3.8-flash","provider":"Alibaba","allocation":100000,"maxExposure":null,"maxTarget":null,"dailyLoss":null,"dailySpend":null,"decisionMs":900000,"minWakeMinutes":1,"maxWakeMinutes":1440,"quoteMaxMs":60000,"feeReserveRate":0.003,"trialDays":14},"allocationChanges":[{"at":"2026-09-20T07:08:04.676Z","delta":99000,"previousAllocation":1000,"allocation":100000}],"nextDecisionIso":"2026-09-25T08:50:35.868Z","lastDecision":{"id":"decision-1790323503272-210","at":"2026-09-25T08:05:03.272Z","action":"hold","targetUsd":10264.04,"rationale":"Mark ~$84,119 (bid 84,104.66 / ask 84,119.02, half-spread ~$7.2, ~0.0085% — tight). Position 0.122211962 BTC, exposure $10,280.35 vs target $10,264.04; drift +$16.31 (closeDriftToCurrentTarget trades only $16.31 notional, expectedTotalCostUsd $0.04, 0.26% — immaterial, well under any meaningful rebalance threshold). DailyPnl -$33.23 (recovered sharply from -$71.13 at Decision-209 as the 07:15–08:00 legs reclaimed off the 83,740 low; the break-fail thesis played out). Cash ample: brokerCashBP $89,884, availableCash $89,086. No open orders.\n\nGATES RESOLVED ON COMPLETED BARS (final 08:00 bar is FORMING — open 84,029.23/high 84,161.09/low 84,021.37, current close 84,111.84):\nDecision-209 flagged a possible real leg to 83,500 (trim gate) vs stabilization above 83,800. Completed bars: 07:00 close 83,805.24 (low 83,739.79 — session low, higher low vs the 83,611 from 08:30 yesterday); 07:15 close 84,041.45 (strong +236 reclaim on 0.037 volume); 07:30 close 83,894.82 (pullback); 07:45 close 84,029.28 (recovers high of 07:30). The 83,800 support HELD and price reclaimed the 84,000–84,100 area on the most recent completed bar. Trim <83,500 and exit <83,292 never approached (nearest completed low 83,739.79, ~$240 above trim gate). Add >84,900 far (recent high 84,161).\n\nREAD: The box-break at 06:30 failed to extend and reversed into a higher-low reclaim — a failed breakdown, mild bullish lean, not yet a trend resume. No new position justification (still inside the broader 83,600–84,900 chop from yesterday; volume on the reclaim was light-to-moderate, not a conviction breakout). Therefore no add and no trim; HOLD current ~$10.3k exposure at target 10264.04. Drift $16.31/$0.04 cost ignored as noise. Next add trigger remains a COMPLETED 15m close >84,900 (reclaim of the 14:15/16:30 highs ~84,851/84,908); next trim remains completed close <83,500; exit <83,292 (prior swing low).","nextWakeMinutes":45,"wakeReason":"Holding ~$10.3k. Failed-breakdown reclaim confirmed on completed 07:45 (close 84,029); no gates hit (trim <83,500 ~$520 below, add >84,900 far). Drift $0.04 immaterial. 45m lets 08:00/08:15/08:30/08:45 complete to see whether the reclaim extends toward 84,300–84,500 or fades back to the box floor."},"recentDecisions":[{"id":"decision-1790300763425-201","at":"2026-09-25T01:46:03.425Z","action":"hold","targetUsd":10264.04,"rationale":"Mark ~$84,463 (bid 84,463.15 / ask 84,484.90, half-spread ~$11, ~0.013% — tight). Position 0.122211962 BTC, exposure $10,325.07 vs target $10,264.04; drift +$61 (closeDriftToCurrentTarget trades only $61.01 notional, expectedTotalCostUsd $0.16, 0.26% — immaterial, NOT a rebalance signal). DailyPnl +$10.58 (cooled from +$36.86 at Decision-200 as mark eased ~$240). Cash ample: brokerCashBP $89,884, availableCash $89,086. No open orders.\n\nGATES FROM DECISION-200 RESOLVED ON COMPLETED BARS (final 01:45 bar is FORMING — open 84,454.64/high 84,482.20/low 84,454.64/close ~84,474/vol 0 — excluded from close-based gates):\n\nLast completed bars:\n- 01:00 closed 84,681.27 (high 84,780.56): pushed above add region but completed close was BELOW the 84,685 add gate by ~$4 — gate NOT met.\n- 01:15 closed 84,522.04 (low 84,494.71): lower close, faded.\n- 01:30 closed 84,459.84 (low 84,336.89): second consecutive lower close, stalling.\n\nREAD: The breakout attempt above the 84,685 add gate has now failed on multiple completed closes (00:00 spike→fade ~84,636, 01:00 high 84,780→close 84,681 then lower closes). Tape is grinding down from the highs into ~84,460 — distribution-ish fade, but still well inside the broad ~83,300–84,780 range. Add gate NOT met → no buying. Trim gate (completed close <83,500) and exit gate (<83,292) far away → no selling. Holding existing ~$10.3k exposure is correct: neither chase failed breakouts nor cut an intact range. Drift immaterial. Fee evidence: 30 observed fee activities, $0 charged — configured tier conservative, not a divergence concern.","nextWakeMinutes":45,"wakeReason":"Holding ~$10.3k. Add gate (completed close >84,685) failed again at 01:00; two lower closes now into ~84,460 fade. Trim to ~6.8k if completed close <83,500; exit <83,292; add only on completed close >84,685. 45m lets 01:30/01:45/02:00 complete to gauge whether the fade deepens or range holds. Drift $0.16 immaterial."},{"id":"decision-1790303542077-202","at":"2026-09-25T02:32:22.077Z","action":"hold","targetUsd":10264.04,"rationale":"Mark ~$84,690 (ask 84,690.39 / bid 84,658.60, half-spread ~$15, ~0.018% — tight). Position 0.122211962 BTC, exposure $10,350.18 vs target $10,264.04; drift +$86.14 (closeDriftToCurrentTarget trades only $86.11 notional, expectedTotalCostUsd $0.23, 0.27% — immaterial, NOT a rebalance signal). DailyPnl +$34.46 (recovered from +$10.58 at Decision-201 as the tape pushed to session highs). Cash ample: brokerCashBP $89,884, availableCash $89,086. No open orders.\n\nGATES FROM DECISION-201 RESOLVED ON COMPLETED BARS (final 02:30 bar is FORMING — open 84,667.25/high 84,711.21/low 84,649.33/close ~84,690/vol 0 — excluded from close-based gates):\n- 01:30 completed close 84,459.84 (low 84,336.89) — faded, no trim (<83,500 not touched).\n- 01:45 completed close 84,597.81 — recovered.\n- 02:00 completed close 84,807.73 (high 84,858.80) — BREAKS the add gate (>84,685) with no fade: the strongest close of the sequence.\n- 02:15 completed close 84,673.15 — pulled back ~1.3% off the high but held the prior range, above 84,500.\n\nDECISION ON THE ADD GATE: The add gate technically confirmed on the 02:00 completed close (84,807.73 > 84,685, no intra-bar fade below 84,553). However, the immediate next completed bar (02:15) closed 84,673 — back below the breakout line — and price is now ~84,690 near the same 84,685 threshold. This is the third breakout attempt (00:00 → 84,701, 01:00 → 84,780, 02:00 → 84,858, each fading toward/under the line). The market is oscillating around ~84,685 with rising highs but no sustained follow-through above it, which means an immediate add now would be buying directly into a proven resistance band — poor risk/reward for a ~$2.6k size step. I am therefore HOLDING and requiring a decisive, no-doubt confirmation: a completed close firmly above the 02:00 high (target >84,900) before adding, rather than buying the same fade-prone level a third time. Downside discipline unchanged: trim to ~6.8k on completed close <83,500; exit on completed close <83,292. Drift $0.23 immaterial.","nextWakeMinutes":45,"wakeReason":"Holding ~$10.3k. 02:00 closed 84,807 (broke add gate) but 02:15 faded to 84,673 and price ~84,690 sits right on the 84,685 line — third such fade. Require completed close firmly >84,900 to add, not a chop-level buy. Trim <83,500; exit <83,292. 45m lets 02:30/02:45/03:00/03:15 resolve breakout vs fade. Drift $0.23 immaterial."},{"id":"decision-1790306287918-203","at":"2026-09-25T03:18:07.918Z","action":"hold","targetUsd":10264.04,"rationale":"Mark ~$84,244 (bid 84,216.26 / ask 84,238.16, half-spread ~$11, ~0.013% — tight). Position 0.122211962 BTC, exposure $10,294.91 vs target $10,264.04; drift +$30.87 (closeDriftToCurrentTarget trades only $30.86 notional, expectedTotalCostUsd $0.08, 0.26% — immaterial, NOT a rebalance signal). DailyPnl -$19.60 (swung negative from +$34.46 at Decision-202 as the tape faded ~$450 from the 02:00 session-high print). Cash ample: brokerCashBP $89,884, availableCash $89,086. No open orders.\n\nGATES FROM DECISION-202 RESOLVED ON COMPLETED BARS (final 03:15 bar is FORMING — open 84,234.06/high 84,315.69/low 84,228.80/close ~84,252/vol 0 — excluded from close-based gates):\n\nCompleted sequence since last wake:\n- 02:30 closed 84,466.20 — failed hold at the 84,685 add line; fade began.\n- 02:45 closed 84,201.55 — heavy rejection, broke below the 02:30 low.\n- 03:00 closed 84,233.28 — stabilization with elevated volume 0.0305.\n- 03:15 forming, holding mid-84,2xx, no new lows.\n\nDECISION: HOLD at target $10,264.04. (1) Add gate UNMET and now irrelevant — I demanded a completed close firmly >84,900 (Decision-202) after three prior chop-level failures at 84,685; price is now ~$650 BELOW that line. Do not chase into a fade. (2) Trim gate (completed close <83,500) NOT breached — closest completed low 84,153 (03:00 bar), still ~$650 of cushion above the trim trigger and ~$860 above the 83,292 exit. (3) This is a mean reversion inside the multi-day 82,864–84,908 range, not a structural breakdown; the only high-volume impulse (02:45, 0.0041) was small relative to range-wide prints (09:30 0.150, 14:15 0.118, 20:15 0.159). (4) Fee evidence (30 fee activities, $0.00 observed) does not justify churn for a $31 drift. No macro/news/GOAT analyst data — pure price/volume judgment.\n\nNEXT GATES (completed 15m closes): add to ~$12.8k only on completed close >84,900 with follow-through; trim to ~$6.8k on completed close <83,500; exit on completed close <83,292; watch 84,150/02:45 low as the first downside tell.","nextWakeMinutes":45,"wakeReason":"Holding ~$10.3k, no gates triggered. Price faded ~$450 from 02:00 high to ~84,245; 02:45 closed 84,202 (reject), 03:00 84,233 (stabilize). Add needs completed close >84,900 (far away now); trim <83,500; exit <83,292. 45m lets 03:15/03:30/03:45/04:00 complete to confirm the range floor or a deeper leg."},{"id":"decision-1790309042553-204","at":"2026-09-25T04:04:02.553Z","action":"hold","targetUsd":10264.04,"rationale":"Mark ~$84,141 (bid 84,128.90 / ask 84,152.60, half-spread ~$12, ~0.014% — tight). Position 0.122211962 BTC, exposure $10,284.45 vs target $10,264.04; drift +$20.41 (closeDriftToCurrentTarget trades only $20.41 notional, expectedTotalCostUsd $0.05, 0.26% — immaterial, well under any meaningful rebalance threshold). DailyPnl -$30.27 (negative, cooled from -$19.60 at Decision-203 as the tape eased another ~$100). Cash ample: brokerCashBP $89,884, availableCash $89,086. No open orders.\n\nGATES FROM DECISION-203 RESOLVED ON COMPLETED BARS (final 04:00 bar is FORMING — open 84,214.56/high 84,220.19/low 84,140.75/close ~84,141/vol 0.0006 — excluded from close-based gates):\n\nLast completed bars:\n- 03:15 closed 84,129.21 (rejected the 03:15 high 84,315; fade)\n- 03:30 closed 84,183.52 (stabilize, lower high vs 03:00)\n- 03:45 closed 84,210.73 (modest green, low volume 0.016, no conviction)\n\nRead: Price has ground DOWN ~$670 from the 02:00 session high (~84,808) and is now sitting at/near the bottom of the overnight range, marking ~$84,141 with the forming bar printing a fresh local low. This is a third consecutive rejection of the upside (02:45, 03:15/03:30 fades) and the closes 84,202 → 84,233 → 84,129 → 84,184 → 84,211 are flat-to-fading — a slow bleed, not a capitulation.\n\nGATE STATUS:\n- Add gate (completed close >84,900): FAR from triggering; nearest high 84,908 rejected. No add.\n- Trim gate (completed close <83,500): NOT triggered. Nearest completed close 84,129, ~$630 above trim line. No trim.\n- Exit gate (completed close <83,292): NOT triggered. No exit.\n\nDECISION: HOLD at target $10,264.04. The range floor (~84,000–84,150) is holding so far but conviction is thin and the structure is a slow downside drift. I will not trim on the forming bar's local low — waiting for a completed close to confirm a real break of 83,500 avoids selling into range noise and paying 0.26% on a false move. Drift $0.05 is immaterial; correcting it buys nothing. Risk is controlled: full position is only ~10% of the $100k allocation with $89.9k cash, so a downside leg is survivable and even a fade toward 83,500 leaves the position intact. Next check 30m to let 04:00/04:15/04:30 complete and confirm whether the floor holds or the bleed accelerates toward the trim gate.","nextWakeMinutes":30,"wakeReason":"Holding ~$10.3k, no gates hit. Tape bleeding down to ~$84,141 forming-bar low, third upside rejection. Add needs completed close >84,900; trim <83,500; exit <83,292. 30m lets 04:00/04:15/04:30 complete to confirm whether the range floor holds or the drift accelerates toward trim. Drift $0.05 immaterial."},{"id":"decision-1790310903275-205","at":"2026-09-25T04:35:03.275Z","action":"hold","targetUsd":10264.04,"rationale":"Mark ~$84,159 (bid 84,148.20 / ask 84,175.10, half-spread ~$13.5, ~0.016% — tight). Position 0.122211962 BTC, exposure $10,287.20 vs target $10,264.04; drift +$23.16 (closeDriftToCurrentTarget trades only $23.16 notional, expectedTotalCostUsd $0.06, 0.27% — immaterial, well under any meaningful rebalance threshold). DailyPnl -$27.91 (slightly recovered from -$30.27 at Decision-204; tape stabilizing). Cash ample: brokerCashBP $89,884, availableCash $89,086. No open orders.\n\nGATES FROM DECISION-204 RESOLVED ON COMPLETED BARS (final 04:30 bar is FORMING — open 84,083.80/high 84,176.45/low 84,082.19/close ~84,174/vol 0.002 — excluded): 04:15 closed 84,098.90, 04:00 closed 84,051.88. The drift toward the trim line stalled — lows printed 84,045–84,051 and price bounced back toward 84,174. Trim (<83,500) and exit (<83,292) remain FAR: current mark is ~$650 above the trim trigger. Add gate (completed close >84,900) untouched — no bar close came within $650 of it.\n\nTAPE READ: Session has ground lower from the 02:00 high print (84,858.80) through repeated upside rejections (01:00, 02:00, 02:15) into a ~84,050–84,250 holding band. Volume on the down-legs is modest; the 04:00/04:15 lows (84,045–84,051) are the session's weakest prints and the forming 04:30 bar reclaiming to ~84,174 suggests the floor is at least holding for now. Structure is range/fade, not breakdown. No directional edge to pay spread and fees for: buying into a fading, multi-rejection range has poor asymmetry (add gate unmet, would chase chop), and trimming/selling here crystallizes a small negative day on no confirmed break.\n\nDECISION: HOLD, target unchanged $10,264.04. Drift $0.06 immaterial. Maintain: add ONLY on completed close >84,900 (breakout of the 84,685–84,858 rejection cluster, not chop level); trim toward ~$6.8k on completed close <83,500 (range-floor loss); exit <83,292 (session swing low). Next look in 45m to let 04:30/04:45/05:00/05:15 complete and resolve whether 84,050 is a true floor or the drift toward trim resumes. Missing: news/macro/GOAT intelligence — judgment is purely price/volume/risk.","nextWakeMinutes":45,"wakeReason":"Holding ~$10.3k, no gates triggered. Tape stabilized at ~84,050–84,175 after bleeding off the 02:00 high; drift toward trim stalled. Add needs completed close >84,900; trim <83,500; exit <83,292. 45m lets 04:30/04:45/05:00/05:15 complete to confirm whether the range floor holds or the slide toward 83,500 resumes. Drift $0.06 immaterial."},{"id":"decision-1790313663101-206","at":"2026-09-25T05:21:03.101Z","action":"hold","targetUsd":10264.04,"rationale":"Mark ~$84,179 (bid 84,157.78 / ask 84,179.11, half-spread ~$10.7, ~0.013% — tight). Position 0.122211962 BTC, exposure $10,287.69 vs target $10,264.04; drift +$23.65 (closeDriftToCurrentTarget trades only $23.65 notional, expectedTotalCostUsd $0.06, 0.26% — immaterial, well under any meaningful rebalance threshold). DailyPnl -$26.74 (marginally recovered from -$27.91 at Decision-205; tape stabilizing). Cash ample: brokerCashBP $89,884, availableCash $89,086. No open orders.\n\nGATES FROM DECISION-205 RESOLVED ON COMPLETED BARS (final 05:15 bar is FORMING — open 84,153.85/high 84,255.55/low 84,153.85/close ~84,168/vol 0.0059 — excluded from close-based logic). The 04:30/04:45/05:00/05:15 window closed at 84,263 / 84,186 / 84,148 / (forming). No trim gate (completed close <83,500) and no exit gate (<83,292) have come anywhere near triggering. No add gate (completed close >84,900) either — the last high print was the 02:00 session high at 84,858, well short of 84,900, and the tape has ground sideways-down in a ~84,050–84,270 band since, grinding off the breakout attempt.\n\nREAD: Price has stabilized in a tight, low-range chop near ~$84,150–84,250, roughly 4.7–4.9% above the 83,292 exit gate and ~1.6% above the 83,500 trim gate. Volume is thin on the completed bars — no conviction either direction. This is a no-edge, range-bound tape: neither a fresh breakout to justify adding (needs firm completed close >84,900) nor a breakdown to justify trimming (<83,500). Holding the existing ~$10.3k core position is the correct action. Acting on this drift/noise would only pay spread and fees (0.26%) without a thesis.\n\nPLAN: Continue holding. Require completed close >84,900 to add; trim toward ~$5.1k if completed close <83,500; exit if <83,292. Next wake 45m so 05:15/05:30/06:00/06:15 complete and confirm whether the ~84,100 floor holds or the slide resumes toward the trim gate.","nextWakeMinutes":45,"wakeReason":"Holding ~$10.3k, no gates triggered. Tape in tight ~84,050–84,270 low-vol chop, stabilizing off the 02:00 high. Add needs completed close >84,900; trim <83,500; exit <83,292. 45m lets 05:15/05:30/06:00/06:15 complete to confirm the range floor holds or the slide toward trim resumes. Drift $0.06 immaterial."},{"id":"decision-1790316423208-207","at":"2026-09-25T06:07:03.208Z","action":"hold","targetUsd":10264.04,"rationale":"Mark ~$84,170 (bid 84,164.36 / ask 84,183.50, half-spread ~$9.6, ~0.011% — tight). Position 0.122211962 BTC, exposure $10,288.23 vs target $10,264.04; drift +$24.19 (closeDriftToCurrentTarget trades only $24.19 notional, expectedTotalCostUsd $0.06, 0.26% — immaterial, well under any meaningful rebalance threshold). DailyPnl -$25.94 (steadied in a narrow band of -$19 to -$30 over the last several watches; tape flat-to-slightly-down). Cash ample: brokerCashBP $89,884, availableCash $89,086. No open orders.\n\nGATES FROM DECISION-206 RESOLVED ON COMPLETED BARS (final 06:00 bar is FORMING — open 84,181.90/high 84,215.49/low 84,149.30/close ~84,174, only ~7 min elapsed — excluded from breakout logic). Completed 05:15=84,164.58, 05:30=84,240.30, 05:45=84,179.48 — none closed >84,900 (add gate untouched) and none <83,500 (trim gate untouched). Price is grinding in a very tight ~84,050–84,270 box, the 5th–6th consecutive low-vol chop watch since the 02:00 high print (84,858). A large-volume completed bar appeared at 05:45 (0.310 BTC) but it closed bearish (84,242→84,179), so it reads as distribution/probe rather than breakout fuel. No directional edge has emerged; the tape is neither breaking up nor sliding toward the trim level.\n\nDECISION: No add — far from the >84,900 completed-close gate, and buying into chop with no macro/news/GOAT context (all three flagged missing) is not justified. No trim/exit — support ~84,050 holds, distance to 83,500 is large. No drift rebalance — $0.06 cost on a $24 drift is noise, and repeatedly trimming sub-$25 drift would just burn spread/fees for nothing. Hold target unchanged at $10,264.04. Independent-analysis trial: I am my own judgment owner, and chop with no catalyst is a hold, not a trade.\n\nWake in 60m to capture 06:00(forming)/06:15/06:30/06:45/07:00 completed bars, letting the box either resolve toward breakout or resume the drift toward trim, and to monitor whether the persistent negative-but-flat DailyPnl begins trending.","nextWakeMinutes":60,"wakeReason":"Holding ~$10.3k, no gates triggered. Tight ~84,050–84,270 chop, 5th+ low-vol watch since 02:00 high. Add needs completed close >84,900; trim <83,500; exit <83,292. 05:45 had high volume but closed bearish (probe, not breakout). 60m lets 06:00–07:00 complete to resolve the box. Drift $0.06 immaterial."},{"id":"decision-1790320095131-208","at":"2026-09-25T07:08:15.131Z","action":"hold","targetUsd":10264.04,"rationale":"Mark ~$83,952 (bid 83,934.40 / ask 83,952.46, half-spread ~$9, ~0.011% — tight). Position 0.122211962 BTC, exposure $10,259.99 vs target $10,264.04; drift -$4.05 (closeDriftToCurrentTarget trades only $4.05 notional, expectedTotalCostUsd ~$0.01 — immaterial, well under any meaningful rebalance threshold). DailyPnl -$54.04 (widened from -$25.94 at Decision-207 as the tape slid off the chop box). Cash ample: brokerCashBP $89,884, availableCash $89,086. No open orders.\n\nGATES FROM DECISION-207 RESOLVED ON COMPLETED BARS (final 07:00 bar is FORMING — open 84,029.10/high 84,045.19/low 83,940.78/close 83,940.78; do not judge it): Completed sequence 06:00 84,106, 06:15 84,082, 06:30 84,021 (low 83,926), 06:45 84,015. The tight 84,050–84,270 box has now broken DOWN — 06:30 closed below its floor and printed a low of 83,926, followed by continued weak closes and a forming-bar low of 83,941. Low volume throughout (mostly <0.01), so it is a drift, not a capitulation flush.\n\nGATE CHECK: Trim gate is a completed close <83,500 — NOT hit; current price ~$83,940, still ~$440 above trim. Exit gate <83,292 — far away. Add gate >84,900 — far away. None triggered.\n\nJudgment: This is a genuine development since the last six holds — the multi-hour low-vol range resolved to the downside rather than sideways. However, it resolved gently on light volume and price has NOT reached the 83,500 trim gate, so there is no mechanical reason to act yet. Prematurely trimming into a $440 cushion above my own predefined gate just adds spread/fee churn and undermines gate discipline. I deliberately keep holding the ~$10.3k position and let the completed 07:00/07:15/07:30 bars confirm whether this is a real leg toward 83,500 (where I will reduce) or a failed break that reclaims the box (where I would stand down). 30m is tight enough to catch acceleration toward the trim gate.","nextWakeMinutes":30,"wakeReason":"Holding ~$10.3k. The 84,050–84,270 box just broke DOWN (06:30 close 84,021, low 83,926; forming 07:00 ~83,941) on light volume, but trim gate <83,500 NOT hit (still ~$440 above). Exit <83,292, add >84,900 far. Drift $0.01 immaterial. 30m lets 07:00/07:15/07:30 complete to confirm a real leg to 83,500 (then reduce) vs a failed break reclaiming the box."},{"id":"decision-1790321943362-209","at":"2026-09-25T07:39:03.362Z","action":"hold","targetUsd":10264.04,"rationale":"Mark ~$83,824 (bid 83,794.60 / ask 83,824.82, half-spread ~$15, ~0.018% — tight). Position 0.122211962 BTC, exposure $10,244.40 vs target $10,264.04; drift -$19.64 (closeDriftToCurrentTarget trades only $19.64 notional, expectedTotalCostUsd $0.05 — immaterial, well under any meaningful rebalance threshold). DailyPnl -$71.13 (widened from -$54.04 at Decision-208 as the tape continued to bleed off the box). Cash ample: brokerCashBP $89,884, availableCash $89,086. No open orders.\n\nGATES RESOLVED ON COMPLETED BARS (final 07:30 bar is FORMING — open 84,041.67/high 84,084.07/low 83,801.55, current close 83,839):\n- The 84,050–84,270 chop box broke down at 06:30 (close 84,021, low 83,926) and 07:00 pressed the low to 83,740.\n- 07:15 COMPLETED reclaimed the box floor (open 83,810/high 84,041/close 84,041) — a reclaim.\n- Forming 07:30 is FAILING that reclaim: lower high 84,084 and back down toward 83,800. This is a break-reclaim-fail, leaning bearish, but on light volume (0.037, 0.004) — drift, not capitulation.\n- Trim gate <83,500 NOT hit (still ~$340 below current mark). Exit <83,292 far. Add >84,900 far.\n\nDecision: HOLD. No gate triggered, drift immaterial, volume light. The rejection-at-broken-level is a caution flag for a possible leg toward 83,500 but is not yet confirmed on a completed bar. I will not pre-emptively reduce into a low-volume drift; that would pay $6.86 in cost to act on an unconfirmed signal. Keep target $10,264.04 and shorten the watch to resolve whether 07:30/07:45/08:00 complete into a real downward leg (then trim toward $7,683) or stabilize above 83,800.","nextWakeMinutes":25,"wakeReason":"Holding ~$10.3k. Box-break down reclaim FAILED on forming 07:30 (lower high, back to ~83,800) on light volume — break-reclaim-fail, bearish lean but unconfirmed. Trim <83,500 (~$340 below) not hit. Exit <83,292, add >84,900 far. Drift $0.05 immaterial. 25m lets 07:30/07:45 complete to confirm a real leg to 83,500 (then reduce) vs stabilization above 83,800."},{"id":"decision-1790323503272-210","at":"2026-09-25T08:05:03.272Z","action":"hold","targetUsd":10264.04,"rationale":"Mark ~$84,119 (bid 84,104.66 / ask 84,119.02, half-spread ~$7.2, ~0.0085% — tight). Position 0.122211962 BTC, exposure $10,280.35 vs target $10,264.04; drift +$16.31 (closeDriftToCurrentTarget trades only $16.31 notional, expectedTotalCostUsd $0.04, 0.26% — immaterial, well under any meaningful rebalance threshold). DailyPnl -$33.23 (recovered sharply from -$71.13 at Decision-209 as the 07:15–08:00 legs reclaimed off the 83,740 low; the break-fail thesis played out). Cash ample: brokerCashBP $89,884, availableCash $89,086. No open orders.\n\nGATES RESOLVED ON COMPLETED BARS (final 08:00 bar is FORMING — open 84,029.23/high 84,161.09/low 84,021.37, current close 84,111.84):\nDecision-209 flagged a possible real leg to 83,500 (trim gate) vs stabilization above 83,800. Completed bars: 07:00 close 83,805.24 (low 83,739.79 — session low, higher low vs the 83,611 from 08:30 yesterday); 07:15 close 84,041.45 (strong +236 reclaim on 0.037 volume); 07:30 close 83,894.82 (pullback); 07:45 close 84,029.28 (recovers high of 07:30). The 83,800 support HELD and price reclaimed the 84,000–84,100 area on the most recent completed bar. Trim <83,500 and exit <83,292 never approached (nearest completed low 83,739.79, ~$240 above trim gate). Add >84,900 far (recent high 84,161).\n\nREAD: The box-break at 06:30 failed to extend and reversed into a higher-low reclaim — a failed breakdown, mild bullish lean, not yet a trend resume. No new position justification (still inside the broader 83,600–84,900 chop from yesterday; volume on the reclaim was light-to-moderate, not a conviction breakout). Therefore no add and no trim; HOLD current ~$10.3k exposure at target 10264.04. Drift $16.31/$0.04 cost ignored as noise. Next add trigger remains a COMPLETED 15m close >84,900 (reclaim of the 14:15/16:30 highs ~84,851/84,908); next trim remains completed close <83,500; exit <83,292 (prior swing low).","nextWakeMinutes":45,"wakeReason":"Holding ~$10.3k. Failed-breakdown reclaim confirmed on completed 07:45 (close 84,029); no gates hit (trim <83,500 ~$520 below, add >84,900 far). Drift $0.04 immaterial. 45m lets 08:00/08:15/08:30/08:45 complete to see whether the reclaim extends toward 84,300–84,500 or fades back to the box floor."}],"orders":[],"orderHistory":[{"clientId":"gaq-95866796eebd728e36d01a75fc798f5f91db41c1","status":"filled","phase":"strategy","done":true,"createdAt":1790241468747,"filled":0.130397447,"value":10869.542148147826,"reason":"decision-1790241422921-177","body":{"side":"sell","qty":"0.130397447","type":"market","time_in_force":"ioc"}},{"clientId":"gaq-3e039ad7ac973ca0a6cacfe304102dd0fae8cf8f","status":"filled","phase":"strategy","done":true,"createdAt":1790260225871,"filled":0.032740691,"value":2776.2138090081985,"reason":"decision-1790260202751-185","body":{"side":"buy","qty":"0.032740691","type":"limit","time_in_force":"ioc","limit_price":"84829.55"}},{"clientId":"gaq-88a0ff959abfab10b35585a48dd5df7ced4cce3c","status":"filled","phase":"strategy","done":true,"createdAt":1790273129782,"filled":0.04083947,"value":3427.11017811659,"reason":"decision-1790273103265-190","body":{"side":"sell","qty":"0.040839470","type":"market","time_in_force":"ioc"}}],"spend":{"2026-09-19":{"spent":0.00014017,"reserved":0,"outputTokenOvershoots":0,"unknownRequests":0},"2026-09-20":{"spent":0.072924444,"reserved":0.019999999999999997,"outputTokenOvershoots":0,"unknownRequests":2},"2026-09-21":{"spent":0.09559461400000005,"reserved":0.26000000000000006,"outputTokenOvershoots":0,"unknownRequests":26},"2026-09-22":{"spent":0.00520057,"reserved":0.2,"outputTokenOvershoots":0,"unknownRequests":5},"2026-09-23":{"spent":0.124436234,"reserved":0.07999999999999999,"outputTokenOvershoots":1,"unknownRequests":2},"2026-09-24":{"spent":0.08257887599999998,"reserved":0,"outputTokenOvershoots":1,"unknownRequests":0},"2026-09-25":{"spent":0.037009922,"reserved":0,"outputTokenOvershoots":2,"unknownRequests":0}},"lastSnapshot":{"asOf":"2026-09-25T08:39:03.115Z","positionQty":0.122211962,"pendingBuyUsd":0,"accountStatus":"ACTIVE","quote":{"t":"2026-09-25T08:39:02.95417638Z","bp":84333.3,"ap":84364.369}},"paperAccount":{"equity":100192.33,"cash":89884.48,"asOf":"2026-09-25T08:39:03.115Z","currency":"USD","scope":"Entire Alpaca paper account; separate from strategy performance"},"lastError":null,"decisionHealth":{"state":"HEALTHY","overdueSeconds":0,"blockedBy":null,"lastSuccessAt":"2026-09-25T08:05:35.868Z","lastAttemptAt":"2026-09-25T08:05:35.868Z","lastFailureAt":"2026-09-23T23:34:14.702Z","lastFailureCode":null,"consecutiveFailures":0,"outageStartedAt":null,"currentOutageSeconds":0,"lastRecoveredAt":"2026-09-23T23:49:58.420Z","lastOutageSeconds":944,"longestOutageSeconds":84084,"note":"Model decision health only. Deterministic monitoring is reported separately and does not substitute for a decision: it observes and records, it does not defend the position, and no automatic liquidation follows a model outage."},"monitorHealth":{"lastMonitorAt":"2026-09-25T08:39:03.115Z","state":"RECENT","scope":"Deterministic order, ownership and accounting observation. It records state and enforces operator pause and stop; it does not place, adjust or close positions on its own."},"commissioningResult":{"verifiedAt":"2026-09-20T05:59:06.685Z","realized":-0.08584215854800092,"feeReserve":0.143819885366676},"lastModelReceipt":{"model":"qwen/qwen3.8-flash","provider":"Alibaba","usage":{"prompt_tokens":12685,"completion_tokens":1519,"cost":0.002479464}},"intelligence":null,"intelligenceLastObserved":null,"trialCharacter":"Independent-analysis trial. GOAT market-data tools not connected in this deployment; GOAT analyst conclusions withheld.","toolAvailability":{"goat_calendar":{"state":"NOT_CONFIGURED","at":null,"asOf":null,"error":null},"goat_catalog":{"state":"NOT_CONFIGURED","at":null,"asOf":null,"error":null},"goat_macro":{"state":"NOT_CONFIGURED","at":null,"asOf":null,"error":null},"goat_news":{"state":"NOT_CONFIGURED","at":null,"asOf":null,"error":null},"goat_positioning":{"state":"NOT_CONFIGURED","at":null,"asOf":null,"error":null},"goat_volume":{"state":"NOT_CONFIGURED","at":null,"asOf":null,"error":null}},"inputProfile":{"character":"Independent-analysis trial. GOAT market-data tools not connected in this deployment; GOAT analyst conclusions withheld.","contextVersion":"decision-context-v3","intelligenceVersion":null,"key":"decision-context-v3|none||r3","activatedAt":"2026-09-23T11:30:01.123Z","source":"7dfe69ae4aeaf3b58e96ddfd491b37d0c8f69ba8","previousKey":"decision-context-v3|none||r2"},"recoveries":[{"at":"2026-09-22T23:27:46.677Z","classification":"OPERATIONAL_INCIDENT","clearedStopReason":"PROVIDER_BUDGET_CONTRACT_BREACH","note":"At 2026-09-22T01:26:46Z the provider returned 2051 completion tokens against a requested 2048 (cost $0.00286 vs a $0.04 reserve). A shared stop wire latched STOPPING and the deterministic stop-exit sold 0.927785462 BTC. Not a model trading decision. Planes separated in e7c054bd."}],"brokerFeeObservations":[{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":0.000414,"usd":0,"price":86206.36,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":0.00042032,"usd":0,"price":80801.9,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":0.000126092,"usd":0,"price":81435.78,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":0.000120093,"usd":0,"price":81719.8,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":0.000043316,"usd":0,"price":80825.98,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":0.000091165,"usd":0,"price":86211.7,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":3.73e-7,"usd":0,"price":80510.52,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":0.000310393,"usd":0,"price":80480.5,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":3.15e-7,"usd":0,"price":82217.39,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":0.000336554,"usd":0,"price":81188.89,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":4.57e-7,"usd":0,"price":82190.52,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":3.15e-7,"usd":0,"price":82198.7,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":3.15e-7,"usd":0,"price":82202.08,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":3.7e-7,"usd":0,"price":81241.57,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":0.000174885,"usd":0,"price":85370.68,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":3e-7,"usd":0,"price":82206.95,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":0.000365401,"usd":0,"price":82223,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":3e-7,"usd":0,"price":82203.26,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":0.000114078,"usd":0,"price":81534.22,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":0.000303978,"usd":0,"price":81461.53,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":3.15e-7,"usd":0,"price":82219.35,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-21","qty":3.58e-7,"usd":0,"price":82205.2,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-23","qty":0.000724618,"usd":0,"price":86745.5,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-23","qty":2.54e-7,"usd":0,"price":86733.79,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-23","qty":0.000270775,"usd":0,"price":86838.15,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-23","qty":0.000001267,"usd":0,"price":86834.04,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-23","qty":5.08e-7,"usd":0,"price":86691.85,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-23","qty":0.00036322,"usd":0,"price":86735.14,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-23","qty":0.000001016,"usd":0,"price":86687.06,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-23","qty":2.54e-7,"usd":0,"price":86704.36,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-24","qty":0.00007177,"usd":0,"price":84794.2,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"},{"date":"2026-09-24","qty":2.6e-7,"usd":0,"price":84735.8,"phase":"UNALLOCATED_COMMISSIONING_AND_STRATEGY"}]}